Kasparov

7.6.2023

For @Kasparov63, #Putin’s defeat in #Ukraine would mean the collapse of his regime, a smaller #Russia, and more likely regions such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and Chechnya to secede from the federation. https://t.co/xhHQNWzeag

— Francisco Taveira (@jftaveira1993) July 7, 2023

This article is a reprint. You can read the original at Outdoor Enthusiast Magazine.

By Matt Carlson

“Russia is on the brink of a civil war that could destroy the country, this Thursday the head of Ukraine’s main intelligence service (GUR): Major General Kyrillo Budanov issued a warning after a secret internal investigation by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. The levels of public support for the Wagner Group’s rebellion are the most direct challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority during his tenure.

According to an official quoted by the British newspaper ‘The Times’, the Russian ministry monitored attitudes towards the riots with a new generation of spyware that monitors trends in messaging apps and social networks. According to the report, during the days of the uprising, Wagner’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin had popular support in 17 of Russia’s 46 regions: Putin had already “won” 21 – in the remaining regions, support for both leaders was roughly equal.

“This is what we see now: Russian society is divided into two parts,” Budanov said, adding that the data show “what we are saying – that the Russian Federation is on the brink of civil war.” There should be a little internal litigation and the internal conflict will intensify.

According to Ukrainian intelligence services, the Russian study found that Putin could be trusted with Moscow’s loyalty but not with his hometown of St. Petersburg — in the southern republic of Dagestan, where the Russian president had the worst support. Prigozhin receives 97% support.

The prospect of civil war in Russia, or the country’s disintegration in a post-Putin world, worries world leaders, but is seen as necessary by some opposition figures seeking to overthrow the Kremlin. For Garry Kasparov, a Putin critic and former world chess champion, Putin’s defeat in Ukraine would mean the collapse of his regime, a smaller Russia, and more likely regions such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Chechnya to secede from the federation. “Eastern Europe would be happy if Russia disintegrates and becomes a wild, chaotic, multi-state East”, “The situation in the West is changing. In America, I think this is the biggest concern,” Kasparov stressed, because it means “the rise of China and at the expense of Russia”.”